Turnbow: 2 Polls - Davis 47 Childers 46 & Childers 51 Davis 42

From Turnbow: "I saw two polls this morning from the north Mississippi congressional race between Travis Childers(D) and Greg Davis(R). One had Davis up by a 47-46 margin and the other one had Childers up 51-42."

Childers claims tie in poll for special

The Hill - Dems hopeful to pick up Wicker’s House seat - Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers’s (D) campaign released an internal poll Wednesday showing the Democrat in a virtual tie with the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. Childers took 41 percent of the vote to Davis’s 40 percent in the poll, which was performed in recent days by Anzalone Liszt Research. It surveyed 500 likely special-election voters, weighted according to expected geographical turnout. The race still has many variables, but the poll indicates the April 22 contest could be competitive....When all six candidates, including McCullough and Holland, are tested in the Childers poll, McCullough takes 14 percent and Holland takes 7 percent. But Childers actually loses his slight lead when all six candidates are included, as Davis takes a 29-27 edge. Davis’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Turnbow on Polls: McCullough, Childers

Turnbow.net - New Poll in local Congressional race - A friend last night passed along some new poll numbers in the special election for Roger Wickers congressional seat in northeast mississippi in a few weeks. The results are kind of surprising.....Glen McCullough now has a 45-38 lead over Greg Davis. On the democrat side, Prentiss County Court Clerk Travis Childers has pulled ahead of State Rep Steve Holland by a 51-41 margin. The dems are getting very excited about Childers chances according to what I heard. But I dont know about the GOP poll though. Desoto County is Greg Davis's base and it has exploded in growth in recent years. According to the Commercial Appeal yesterday, its population hit the 150,000 mark this month. That and McCulloughs problems with the TVA should bode well for Davis come election day in two weeks.

Roll Call: McCullough Leading

Roll Call - New Poll Shows McCullough Leading in Mississippi Runoff - With two weeks to go in Mississippi’s 1st district Republican primary runoff, a new poll released this week by Glenn McCullough’s campaign showed the former Tupelo mayor with a 7-point lead over Southaven Mayor Greg Davis.

The On Message Inc. survey of 400 likely voters showed McCullough with 45 percent and Davis with 38 percent. It had a 4.9-point margin of error. The poll was conducted on the two days following the primary election on March 11 in which McCullough earned 39 percent and Davis took 37 percent.

The On Message polling memo appeared to confirm the come-from-behind nature of McCullough’s primary campaign.

In late February, a Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted for Davis’ campaign gave Davis an 18-point lead. The On Message memo noted that McCullough’s own campaign had the former Tupelo mayor down by 23 points in a Feb. 12 poll.

But McCullough came on strong by rallying his Tupelo base — which also was now-Sen. Roger Wicker’s (R) base during his seven House terms — and in the rural areas of Northern Mississippi. In the primary he beat Davis in 18 of 24 counties in the district. He also outraised Davis over the last 10 days of the campaign, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

The On Message polling memo said that “the only path to victory that remains for Greg Davis is to pursue a high-risk strategy of negative messaging. ... With his vote share decreasing, we fully expect Davis to remain negative throughout the runoff election.”

Salter: McCullough leads Davis / Debate Confirmed

ClarionLedger.com - Sid Salter Blog - New poll data: McCullough leads Davis 45 percent to 38 percent - Former Tupelo mayor and former TVA chairman Glenn McCullough has opened a seven percent lead on Southaven Mayor Greg Davis in the 1st Congressional District Republican second primary, according to a poll released by OnMessage, Inc. The poll shows both candidates with around 13 to 14 percent "unfavorable" ratings with McCullough's "favorable" ratings about 3 percent higher that Davis. The pollsters tell McCullough that the Davis campaign "has stagnated and is losing ground. Historically, candidates that lose momentum this rapidly always garner an even smaller percentage of the vote in the runoff election. This is exactly the scenario Davis now faces." In addition, the pollsters say that McCullough has climbed 23 percent in the last month on the "ballot test" to 48 percent. The OnMessage survey was conducted March 12 and 13, 2008. All interviews were conducted via telephone. The survey consists of 400 voters screened for likely participation in the April 1 Republican runoff election. Interviews were stratified by county to reflect turnout in the March 11 Republican primary. The margin of error for this study is +/- 4.9%.

ClarionLedger.com - Sid Salter Blog - 1st Congressional District GOP debates confirmed March 20 and March 27 - Lydia Quarles at the MSU Stennis Institute of Government has confirmed that 1st Congressional District GOP candidates Greg Davis and Glenn McCullough will debate March 20 in Aberdeen and March 27 in Senatobia. Thursday 20th: Debate in Aberdeen at Elkins Theatre on Commerce Street. GOP only. Doors open 6:30 for "meet and greet" with debate beginning at 7-ish. Debate will be between 60 and 75 minutes. 3 minute opening statements, questions directed to 1 candidate who has 2 minutes to answer, other candidate then given 2 minutes for rebuttal/response. Ending with 3 minute closings. There will be space available in the lobby of the Elkins for candidates to distribute materials. Thursday 27th: Debate in Senatobia on campus of Northwest MS CC. Same time frame and protocol.

Polls

1) From a reader's email:

A Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll; conducted 1/16-17 for Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R); surveyed 300 GOP LVs; margin of error +/- 6% (McArdle, Roll Call, 2/5). Tested: Davis, Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough (R) and ophthalmologist Randy Russell (R). Primary Election Matchup
G. Davis 36%
G. McCullough 22
R. Russell 1

Source: House Race Hotline

2) From MisterTurnbow:

I saw a GOP internal poll over the weekend that was taken for the special congressional election in north Mississippi. There wasnt anything all that surprising in it. Greg Davis had a 45-40 lead over former TVA Chief Glenn McCullough in the GOP primary. They didnt survey the democrats but I would assume that State Rep Steve Holland will win that race. The general election match ups showed that Davis and McCullough would both defeat Holland but McCulloughs lead was only eight points while Davis was up by twelve over Holland.

ZataPulse Ross Poll Numbers

Zata3 conducted a statewide survey of registered voters to gauge their opinions of four potential candidates in the special election to fill the unexpired term of Senator Trent Lott. Charlie Ross's numbers:

Very Favorable 6%
Somewhat Favorable 20%
Somewhat Unfavorable 18%
Very Unfavorable 9%
Not Enough Info To Form Opinion 48%