Pickering and Thompson on First District

Third District Representative Chip Pickering (R) and Second District Representative Bennie Thompson (D) comment on the First District Race in this MPB story. Pickering says, "It is a wake up call not only for us in Mississippi, but nationally as a party as Republicans, what our message is, what our agenda is, and I do think we should look in the mirror." Thompson says, "I think it will be tough to take a seat back from an incumbent, especially one that who is a seasoned politician at the local level, one who has run four times in two months and still has energy at the end of those elections."

Following a House Republican Conference meeting after the Childers victory, Pickering expressed similar thoughts saying, "We're not going to be able to scare people into voting Republicans by being against Barack Obama. You have to have a relevant agenda and a compelling reason to vote Republican."

Rothenberg on Childers and Davis

Stuart Rothenberg - Mississippi Special: Why Childers Won and Why Davis Lost

CQ: Moves race from "Safe Republican" to "Leans Republican"

CQpolitics - Departure of Popular GOP Incumbent Puts Mississippi House Seat in Play - The conservative leanings and usual Republican voting tendencies in northern Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District would appear to give a strong advantage to front-running GOP candidate Greg Davis in his bid for Congress. Yet Democrats insist that divisions within the district’s Republican ranks that surfaced during a recent primary campaign — and the emergence of Travis Childers, a local official with a conservative profile, as the leading Democratic candidate — gives them a shot at the seat that seven-term Republican incumbent Roger Wicker vacated in December after his appointment to the U.S. Senate.

Some Mississippi political analysts say the Democrats’ optimism may not be misplaced. “I even get some raised eyebrows around here when I say a Democrat can win in the 1st District,” said Marty Wiseman, a well-known authority on Mississippi politics who directs the John C. Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. “But it’s not unreasonable to say it’s too close to call.”

CQ Politics is changing its rating of the race to Leans Republican from Safe Republican. The new rating reflects the competitive nature of the race, but identifies Davis as the candidate who holds an edge.

“Everybody realizes that we have a nominee and we are going to get behind that nominee to maintain this seat,” said Brad White, the state Republican Party’s executive director and incoming chairman.

White described as “just rhetoric” the Democrats’ contention that they could win this year. “This would be the first legitimate shot they’ve had of electing someone, because there was no way they were ever going to defeat Roger Wicker ,” White said. “But to say that’s it’s just a given, I think that’s just a lot of talk coming out of the Democratic Party simply because it’s an open seat.”

Childers claims tie in poll for special

The Hill - Dems hopeful to pick up Wicker’s House seat - Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers’s (D) campaign released an internal poll Wednesday showing the Democrat in a virtual tie with the GOP nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. Childers took 41 percent of the vote to Davis’s 40 percent in the poll, which was performed in recent days by Anzalone Liszt Research. It surveyed 500 likely special-election voters, weighted according to expected geographical turnout. The race still has many variables, but the poll indicates the April 22 contest could be competitive....When all six candidates, including McCullough and Holland, are tested in the Childers poll, McCullough takes 14 percent and Holland takes 7 percent. But Childers actually loses his slight lead when all six candidates are included, as Davis takes a 29-27 edge. Davis’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Dems Eye Dist 1

CottonMouth posted this analysis of the First District from DailyKos which suggests Dems might "shock the world there" and pick up this seat in the special election. Meanwhile Swing State Project makes a similar argument while tempering the possible outcome:

So can Childers make a real race of this? The traditional prognosticators -- CQ, Cook (friend of SSP), et al -- currently rate the seat as "Safe Republican". It's hard to fault them for that -- after all, this is an R+10 Southern seat that Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004. But I subscribe to a different view, and the Swing State Project currently puts this race at the more competitive rating of Likely Republican....Make no mistake -- this seat is an uphill climb for Childers, but it by no means can be written off completely. With his support in county courthouse circles, his economic populism, and a regional rift to play to his advantage, Childers can make this seemingly-sleepy special election a race to watch.

The mainstream press is following this story. The Commercial Appeal writes:

So Davis should have it made, right? Well, maybe, maybe not. Although partisan voting trends certainly seem to be in his favor, Davis faces several serious challenges in both upcoming elections. Voter fatigue could be a problem. The April 22 election will be the third in six weeks for the district's voters....Davis also must try to broaden his base beyond DeSoto and surrounding counties. In his win over McCullough, Davis carried only six of the district's 24 counties....Being from DeSoto could put Davis in a somewhat awkward spot in the heavily rural district, though....Davis may also face some difficulties in drawing distinctions between himself and Childers. Although he's a Democrat, Childers has conservative views on many issues. And as a court clerk, he doesn't have a legislative record that's easy for Davis to analyze and attack. And after attacking and counterattacking McCullough's negative ads in two successive campaigns, Davis runs the risk of alienating some voters if he uses similar tactics against Childers. None of which means that Davis is doomed. King, the Ole Miss professor, said Childers is unlikely to get a lot of fundraising help from the Democratic National Committee, which may decide to funnel more of its resources into races that seem like safer bets. Also, it would be a mistake to underestimate the voting strength of DeSoto residents, who carried Davis to victory after he finished second behind McCullough in the primary.

UPDATE: RightOfMississippi says on this subject:

Question: Does Travis Childers Have a Chance?
Answer: No

Someone over at DailyKos and our friends at Cottonmouth are really trying to sell a bill of goods that says Travis Childers has a chance in NE MS. They forget one important fact; Haley Barbour is the Governor of Mississippi, he made the Senate appointment and I hardly doubt that our good Governor would stand by and not put the full efforts of the MS GOP towards retaining this seat.

Plus everyone already knows that Travis Childers is a shady fellow, just look at who he hangs out with, using his office to make sweet-heart land deals. This is a very well known fact in Prentiss County.

In a year that might be good for Democrats nationwide, they better look somewhere else than here in Mississippi. We think Greg Davis has a pretty good shot at taking the election on the first ballot April 22nd.

Special Election April 22

We assume that all the candidates seeking this race during the regular election (March 11 Primary; November 4 General) will qualify for the special election, but we expect the Republicans and Democrats who do not win their party's nomination will drop out of the special after the primary. But maybe not, it could get interesting.

Clarion Ledger - Special election set for Wicker's old seat - A special election to fill the unexpired term of former U.S. Rep. and current U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker in Mississippi's First Congressional District has been set for April 22, according to a news release from Gov. Haley Barbour's office. In a Writ of Election filed with the Mississippi Secretary of State, Barbour said if a runoff is required, it would be held on May 13, 2008. He designated March 7, 2008, as the qualifying deadline for candidates in the special U.S. House election.

Commercial Dispatch - Barbour sets special election timetable

CQpolitics - Multiple Mississippi Election Dates Hard to Keep Straight